NFL prediction time - AFC

NFL prediction time - AFC

Finally, the time has arrived and the 2009 NFL season is a reality and not just something I was impatiently waiting for. It is a bit embarasing considering the long off season that I have not been able to post my NFL predictions before now and the season was officially kicked off a couple of days ago, where the defending champions, The Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Tennesee Titans. To my excuse, the wheater that Thursday was absolutely fantastic and this combined with the fact that I had still more than a week left of my vacation meant that I took a fantastic day trip to the Norhern part of Denmark. That was awesome, but hey that is a different story.

Anyway before the season gets too well under way, I better list my list my season predictions. I will not list any individual player records such as most rushing yards, most TDs, most sacks etc, since I do not really care about such stats. Football is a team sport and there is no “I” in team. You win and lose as a team, and all that that really matters in football are the Ws and Ls. So here we go, it is time for my predictions in the NFL, with some comments to each division.

AFC East

New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
Buffalo Bills

As a Bills fan, this is obviously the division that interests me the most. However, I Predict a bad season for my beloved Bills and the turm oil that filled the off season will continue into the season, where I think the Bills will be one of the wortst teams in the NFL. To make it short, the Buffalo Bills are one big mess right now, but I will comment on them in another post shortly.

The Patriots will have Tom Brady back and should win the division without too many problems, even though the health and general play from the NFL MVP from the 2007 season will be under the microscope, after he missed basically the entire 2008 season. The surprising 2008 AFC East division winners, The Miami Dolphins, will fight against the Jets for the 2nd spot in the division. I give the Dolphins a slight edge, mainly due the fact that Chad Pennington just wins a lot of games, when he is healthy and I am not too sure about the QB play from the Jets, with rookie Mark Sanchez under center. At the end of the day, this discussion about the 2nd place in the AFC East is somewhat pointless, since I seriously doubt that 2nd place in this division will be enough to be granted one of the two play off wild cards.

AFC West

San Diego Chargers
Oakland Raiders
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs

One of top my favorites for the winner of the Lombardi Trophy this season are the San Diego Chargers. Though, there are questions marks about this team as well, especially concerning the health and off field problems involving, when healthy, one of best defensive players in the NFL Shawne Merriman, they are loaded with good players on basicially all postitions.

However, there is also a good chance that this HAS to be this season, where they will win the Super Bowl, because of the contract status of several of their star players. QB Phillip Rivers was deservedly awarded a gigantic contract this off season, but LT Marcus McNeill, WR Vincent Jackson, WR Chris Chambers, OLB Shawne Merriman and RB Darren Sproles will be free agents after the 2009 season and star TE Antonio Gates, who is a free agent after the 2010 season, could push for a new contract already in the very near future. So yeah, Chargers GM A.J. Smith will have some decisions to make this year.

If he can stay healthy, I would give Marcus McNeill a new contract, which will be one of the biggest contracts to a LT in the NFL, something like 7 years, 90 million dollars. Next, I would put the franchise tag on Vincent Jackson, since I would like him to deliver at a high level for one more season, before handing him a contract averaging $8-9 million / year. I would let Shawne Merriman test free agency considering his health and legal problems. Unless he has a monster 2009 season, I would also let Chris Champers leave San Diego (where I would love the Bills to pick him up, so he can play with his close friend, Lee Evans). I would do what it takes to keep Antonio Gates, which will most likely be giving him a new contract some during the 2009 season. A contract that will make him the best paid tight end in the league, because he is simply too good to let go. I would probably opt to let Darren Sproles go and test free agency and perhaps replace him with a 2010 draft choice, but at the same time it is extremely important to monitor the situation with future hall of famer, LaDanian Tomlinson. LaDanian has now reached the critical age for a RB, the big thirty, and his production has already started to decrease the last couple of seasons, though he has still never rushed for less than 1,100 yards in a season. I fear that he has only a couple of years left in the tank as an NFL player

So all in all, the Chargers will have some important player personel decisions make, because with the salary cap system in place (hopefully also in the coming years), it will be impossible to give all the mentioned players market value contracts.

Where I rank the Chargers as one of the top teams in the NFL, I have no hessitation of ranking the other 3 teams in the AFC West among the very worst in 2009. It is certainly something new to mention the Broncos among the lowest ranked teams in the league, but on the other hand I cannot rember a team that has had a more turbelent off season than the Broncos. The weird Buffalo Bills off season is nothing compared to the off season for the Dever Broncos. It all started with the shocking firing of legendary head coach Mike Shanahan. Though, it is strange to think about the Broncos without Shanahan, I was not completely opposed to firing him, because it seemed that he had just been the head coach too long and probably had too much power. The poor ending to the 2008 season and impression that Shanahan was not open minded to new ideas meant that I actually thought that it was a good idea to let him go.

However, Choosing Josh McDaniels to replace the legendary Mike Shanahan seems to be a dissasterous choice and if the Broncos had the possibility to turn back time, and I sure that they would have hired someone else instead. It is completely beyond any logical sense to even consider replacing your young Pro Bowl QB Jay Cutler with the potential “one year wonder” Matt Cassel. It is just something you do not do. McDaniels’ incredibly poor handling of this serious affair meant that the Broncos were more or less forced to trade Cutler to the Chicago Bears. Instead they now have Kyle Orton under center. Anyone who has just paid very little attention to the NFL the last few years will notice the enourmos difference in terms of quality between Cutler and Orton.

Next up was the dissastours draft, where they traded their 2010 first round draft pick (which could easily now be a top 5 pick) to the Seahawks, so the Broncos could take CB Alphonso Smith in the 2nd round of the 2009 draft. The Broncos decided to switch to a 3-4 defensive scheme but it appears that they do not have the right personnel in place and they did not do much to find the right players for this chance via the draft, which I believe would have been the right way to go. In addition to this, star WR Brandon Marshall is as always unhappy, even more so than usual and there has been speculation that he could be traded.

The Oakland Raiders are again one big mess. It is sad to see how the once great and extremely sucessful Al Davis has turned this franchise into what it is now. The Raiders have drafted poorly for so many years in a row now and as I have written in an earlier blog post, good drafting is the way to build a successful team. Having selected Robert Gallery 2nd over all in 2004 (he has developed into a very good guard, but it is not clever to spend such a high pick on a guard and they had projected him to be their left tackle for several years), Fabian Washington 23th overall in 2005, Michaell Huff 7th overall in 2006 and Jamarcus Russel with the first overall pick in 2007 is just extremely bad drafting. It is too early to say anything about the 2008 and 2009 draft choices, but I and several “draft experts” thought both picks from the two first rounds from this years’ draft were very big reaches. So in other words, this is what poor decisions on draft day will do for for your franchise.... Obviously handing out ridicolsly big contracts to a very average players like Tommy Kelly does not help.

I would not be surprised to see the Raiders having success running the ball, since their offensive line has had success with their zone blocking scheme, but on the other hand, the defence is so incredibly bad that the Raiders will fall behind in most games and will have to start thowing the ball earlier than first anticipated to try to score points in a hurry. With Jamarcus Russel as QB and a very average group of WRs this strategy looks doomed from the beginning.

The Kansas City chiefs are (again) in rebuilding mode. The have traded the best TE of all time, Tony Conzales to the Falcons. The new regime in Missuiri decided to install a new 3-4 defensive scheme, though I do not think that the Chiefs have the right players for the scheme. Furthermore, I think they made a huge mistake by aquaring QB Matt Cassell via a trade and even worse, awarding him with a big, fat contract without having seen him play as a Kansas City Chief. Though, it is just my opinion, I think that the success Matt Cassel had in New England last season was more a result of being in a incredibly well run offensive system and Kansas City is certainly not compareable to New England, so I think we will see a Matt Cassell, who will struggle immensly in Missuiri.


AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinatti Bengals
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns

I predict that the Steelers will once again be the team to beat, not just in the AFC North but the entire NFL. The Steelers have not lost a lot of key players in the off season and htey still have that brutal defence that will win them several games. The offence could be better, in particular the running game, where there is room for improvement, but overall I predict that the team to win at least 12 games in the regular season and go deep into the play offs.

There are always some surprises in the NFL and this year I somehow predict big things for the Cincinatti Bengals. The defence was not at all bad in 2008 and I cannot see why it should not be at least as good in 2009, where I think the rookie linebacker Ray Maualuga will have a good year and another ex. USC linebacker, Keith Rivers, should contribute more in 2009, since he only played in 7 games in 2008 due to a season ending injury.

I think that the Baltimore Ravens will have a down year in 2009. I seriously doubt that QB Joe Flaco can dublicate his very good rookie season and the receivers on the roster are certainly not scary. Offensively they will have to rely too heavily on their running game and the Steelers will as always be incredibly good at stopping the run and as said I have high hopes for the Bengals in 2009, so no play offs for the Ravens in 2009.

Cleveland Browns will seriously struggle in 2009. Defensively, they are among the very worst in the NFL, both against the pass and in particar against the run. Offensively they will struggle to run the ball effectively, perhaps even more so than in 2008 considering the age and general decline of Jamel Lewis’ carrerer. Since they will have problems running the ball, it is essential that they will have a solid air attack, but I doubt that this will be the case, since they have traded Kellen Winslow Jr. Furthermore, Braylon Edwards had a surprisingly weak 2008 season after his superb 2007 season. He will have to rebound in a big way, if the Browns want to avoid having a top 4 pick in the 2010 NFL draft. Speaking of Braylon Edwards, it will be intersting to see how the Browns will handle his contract situation. He will be a free agent after the 2009 season, but considering his dissapointing 2008 season, his injury problems and his to some extend “troubled” attitude, I cannot see the Browns handing him a big contract extension during the regular season. He will most likely be given the franchise tag after the 2009 season, because he is also way too good to just let go.


AFC South

Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars

The AFC South is one of the strongest divisions in the NFL. I think the Colts, lead by the always reliable QB Peyton Manning, will win the divison and as they still have the best over all team. Their defence will once again be a question mark. It seems to me, that they are sort of “hot or cold”, nothing in between. Often they are just plain bad and other times, they are among the best in the league. If Bob Sanders can just play a few more games in 2009 than in previous seasons, they will do enough to win the division and be among the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

The Tennesse Titans were surprisingly good in 2008 and even though they have lost Albert Haynesworth, one of most dominating defensive tackles in recent years, they should still be in contention for a wild card spot in the conference. Their offensive line is still among the very best in the league and that should once again mean that they will have loads of rushing yards, especially considering the fact that the other teams in the division often have problems stopping the run. However, they will have to throw the ball more effectively, if they want to challange the Colts for the divison title in 2009.

The Houston Texans are mentioned by many as this years’ Arizona Cardinals, meaning that they can be the surprise team in the NFL. I do just not see that happening, since the defence is still way too soft, both against the pass and the run. Offensively they look extremely good, though they perhaps rely too much on the phenomonel play of WR Andre Johnson. If he will miss games in 2009, like he for example did in 2007, the Texans will have serious problems.

I am fairly confident that the Jacksonville Jaguars will finish last in the AFC South. Offensively, I consider David Gerrard to be among the worst starting QBs in the league and he is certainly not helped by the group of WRs. Of course if Torry Holt, the off season signing, can find the form from previous seasons when he was with the Rams, the Jaguars should not be as bad as I have predicted, but taking into account that Torry Holt is now 33 years old and he is no longer in a system he knows so well, I do not predict so big things in Jacksonville for this future hall of famer.

Defensively, the Jacksonville Jaguars are not as bad as for example the Texans. On the other hand they are not as dominating as they were a few seasons ago. So I think that the 2009 season will be the last season where Jack Del Rio is the head coach for the Jacksonville Jaguars.

That was it. I will revert with my predection for the NFC shortly. First I will just write how the division will end and then add some comments later.