The saints won the Super Bowl last week and that concluded the 2009 season. So in other words, we are only a little more than a week into the incredibly long off season, but that will not stop me from looking ahead to September when the 2010 season will officially kick off.
First of all, I will list my division predictions for the 2010 season. Obviously, it is ridiculesly early to make such predictions, but on the other hand, these predictions cannot be worse than the ones I made for the 2009 season and they were made, when the season officially started. As you can see from an earlier blog post, I only listed down my 2009 predictions for the AFC. Somehow I completely forgot to say anything about the NFC on my blog, though I had listed them in my head. My AFC predictions were not particularly impressive, but I have to be honest and confess that my NFC predictions were much worse. I was right that the Saints would win the NFC south and very wrong about pretty much everything else. I was convinced that the Bears would win the NFC North and I was of the opinion that the Vikings were over hyped. It did not exactly go like that....
In the NFC west, I counted on the Seahawks to bounce back in 2009 and win the division. Once again, I was way off target.
It was not much better in the ultra completive NFC East. I was sure that the Giants would win here. In fact before the 2009 season started, I predicted a Giants-Steelers Super Bowl. Both teams failed to make the play offs. Nuff said....
AFC East
New York Jets
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills
This is the division that interest me the most, because the mighty Buffalo Bills play here. Unfortunately I doubt that 2010 will be a much better Bills season than the ones we have seen the last several years. I am not a Dolphins fan but I will I try to be objective and look at their team without prejudices. When doing that, I come to the conclusion that they do not look to be much better than the Bills and that must be alarming for the annoying team from South Florida.
Have the Patriots dominance finally come to a close? It could be, though it could also just be wishful thinking. Fact is that the Patriots did not look as strong in 2009 compared to earlier seasons and their performances in the play offs were embarrassing, especially for Patriots standards. Their defence looks like a far cry from the defence that won them their Super Bowls and even though he is still a very good WR, Randy Moss just looked better a few seasons ago. However, we should never underestimate Bill Billichick and we should not be surprised if the Patriots win the division and progress deep into the play offs.
The New York Jets were surprisingly good in 2009, where they stunned just about everyone by making it all the way to the Conference final. That alone should be enough to make them early favourites to win the AFC East, but when you look at the team, I have to say that the future for the Jets looks good. They have an excellent defence, a very good running game and a young QB that has a lot of potential and could be good down the road.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers
Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos
Oakland Raiders
I think that the 2010 Chargers will still be too good (and the opposition too weak) to not win the AFC West. That said, as I mentioned already when I previewed the 2009 season, I think 2009 should have been the year where the Chargers mounted a serious title push. The Chargers will lose some key players here in the off season and over all, I cannot see that they can be better in 2010.
The brilliant play by the former Longhorn running back Jamal Charles must spire some optimism in Kansas City ahead of the 2010 season. Their defence is still work in progress and there are also major question marks concerning the O-line, but hey, I do not have high thoughts about the AFC West, so you do not have to be all that good to finish 2nd in the division.
Prior to the 2009 season, I did think higly about the Denver Broncos, but just like everyone else I was stunned to see them start the season 6-0. Were the Broncos for real? No they showed in 2nd half the season that they were not so good after all. They finished the season poorly, and I cannot see why there should be much optimism ahead of 2010, when your starting QB is Kyle Orton and your head coach is Josh McDaniels, who I am not a big fan of. At least not as a head coach.
I had fairly high hopes for the 2009 Raiders. In retrospect I can only ask myself why, because they were once again is extremely bad. Jamarcus Russel is a top candidate for “The worst player ever to be picked first over all in an NFL draft” award but unfortunately the other Raiders draft picks from recent years do also not look too good.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati Bengals
Boy do I have problems making my mind up about the AFC North in 2010. I have no clear answer as to who will win the division and who will finish last. I admit it looks odd that I have put the Bengals as number four, a team that went 6-0 in the division in 2009 and won the division. However, I think they have issues on the offensive side of the ball, where it was a major concern to see Carson Palmer struggle to find the brilliant form from previous seasons. The defence should be good again in 2010, but at the same time, it has to be mentioned that the Bengals won several close games in 2010 and I doubt that they can repeat that again in 2010.
The 2009 Browns looked for most of the season to be one of the worst teams ever in the NFL but late in the season, they really picked up their game lead by the surprising strong play by running back Jerome Harrison and they managed to win the last four games. When I have to look ahead to 2010, I really take how a team finished the last into consideration, so I make the somewhat bold statement and say that the Browns will not finish last in the 2010 version of the AFC North.
No team surprised me in such a negative way in 2009 as the Pittsburgh Steelers. My favourites to win the Super Bowl started the season well, but completely fell apart during the season. They lost 7 games in a row, which is incredibly bad and it is even worse when some of the teams they lost to include the Chiefs, Browns and the Raiders. Still the Steelers have an excellent defence and maybe they learned a thing or two from the disappointing 2009 season.
I have predicted the Ravens to win the AFC North in 2010. However, I am far from convinced that this will actually happen, since I am still not that sold on Joe Flaco with the lack of quality receivers at his disposal. The Ravens running game was in excellent in 2009 and it has to continue so in 2010, though it is tall order to ask Ray Rice to play as good in 2010 as he did the season before. If they release Willis McGhee, they will have to find a quality back up to Ray Rice or else they will be in trouble. Though, Ed Reed has hinted that he may retire, the defence should still be excellent in 2010.
AFC South
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars
It is not a typing error.... I have predicted the Colts to finish behind the Texans. Perhaps I have the Super Bowl defeat too fresh in my memory, but I think that this loss could have a significant meaning to the team, which had more wins than any other team in the last decade. I think this could very well be the end of an era, though you would be absolutely stupid to under estimate Peyton Manning and Bills Polian. The Texans were not exactly good in the last decade. They did not reach the postseason once, but they showed a lot of promise in 2009 and I think that they are a young team on the rise. Their offence was very explosive in 2009 but it could be even better in 2010, where the running game could improve.
When the betting odds were released the other day, I took my hype of the Texans to the extreme and put my money on Houston to win the Vince Lombardi trophy. With my recent lacklustre ability to predict anything in the NFL, Texans fans should probably hate me and Colts fans should sent me a good bottle of Zinfandel wine, because I may just have jinxed the 2010 Houston Texans.....
Though a Vince Young lead team just win games, I doubt that the Titans can make the play offs in 2010. I am in particular concerned about the defence, which was very bad at times in 2009 and key players are ageing and were just better players a few seasons ago. However, The Titans looked very good in the 2nd half of the 2009 season and they can take that optimism with them into the 2010 season.
In 2009 The Jaguars were better than I had expected them to be. However, I simply cannot see them being better than the three other teams in the AFC South, which I think is certainly the best division in the AFC and one of the best overall in the NFL.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins
Just like it has been the case for the last several years, NFC East is an extremely tough division. That said, I believe that the Cowboys are one step ahead of the competition and I will be somewhat surprised if the men from Dallas do not win the division. Though the Eagles still look good on paper, I think some of the key players like Donavan McNabb may have their best football behind them and as it looks now, they will have to cope without the brilliant Brian Westbrook. Still, I will not be surprised if the Eagles will finish as runner up to the Cowboys and will finish ahead of the Giants. 2009 was a weird season for the Giants. They looked awesome early in the season, but just like the AFC part of my early 2009 Super Bowl prediction (Pittsburgh Steelers) their season ended in embarrassment. The Giants have to improve dramatically in 2010, if Tom Coughlin wants to coach the Giants in 2011.
The Redskins ? I think they have too many questions marks and they appear to be a couple of years away from competing for the division title, but it will certainly be interesting to see, what Mike Shannahan can do with this team. Unfortunately I think they will use their first round draft pick on Sam Bradford, the player I want to be the Bills starting QB for the next several years.
NFC North
Green bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
I think the NFC North could turn out to be one of the strongest divisions in the 2010 season. Let me start from the bottom. I have predicted the Lions to finish last, but I will not be surprised if they finish better than this. Even though they lost 14 games in 2009, they played a lot better in 2009 than in 2008 and when you watched the games, they were often very much in the game until late in the 3rd quarter. A good draft, like the one, they had in 2009 and perhaps some additions in free agency and the Lions could be a big surprise in 2010 and the years ahead.
As mentioned earlier, the Bears did not live up to my pre season hype in 2009. If Brett Favre returns to the Vikings in 2010, they could be a contender in the NFC again but the Packers are the team I expect to win the division.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints
Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The saints seem to be at least one step ahead of the competition here. The defending Super Bowl Champs will again have a highly explosive offence and they will continue to better defensively. With the Super Bowl win fresh in my memory, it will be hard to bet against the Saints in 2010.
Carolina will have to figure out what they do with the QB position. It was the an astonishing bad decision to give “over the hill” QB Jake Delhomme the big contract extension last off season and the Panthers must seriously consider, if it perhaps makes more sense to name Matt Moore the starter. The Falcons could just as well be ahead of the Panthers. It is very close between these two teams.
The Bucs are in serious rebuilding mode and they are far behind the other teams in this division. It is just important for the Bucs that they make some good personnel decisions, especially in the draft. Then in a couple of seasons, they may be a force to be reckoned with.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks
St. Louis Rams
The weakest division in the NFL. I doubt that Arizona will have too many problems winning the divisions comfortably, even though I think it is highly unlikely that Matt Leinart will play even close to the level of Kurt Warner, and the Cardinals will lose key player Carlos Dansby in free agency. This says so much about the three other teams. In my opinion it seems like the 49ers are pretty much stuck in neutral, the NFC answer to the Buffalo Bills. They have some great players, but they just seem to go nowhere fast.
I am looking forward to seeing Pete Carroll in Seattle and how the Seahawks will perform under him. However, there are so many issues with this team, issues so high in number and of such serious character that they cannot all be addressed in this off season. Just how bad the team is, was showed in the way the team finished the 2009 season.
If you need more proof the NFC West is by far the weakest division in the NFL, just look at the Rams. I think it says it all, when it can easily be concluded that the Seahawks are in much better shape than the Rams. The Rams will again have one of the three first picks in the 2011 NFL draft. No surprise at all, they already have the first over all pick in the 2010 draft.
Super Bowl prediction
Houston Texans over the Green Bay Packers.
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